Author: Law Linc

The official end of the financial year. Tax returns or Tax paying time.

The ASX 200 (XJO) remains close to all time highs. US markets similar. US Jobs numbers were slightly higher than expected (850k vs 700k). Wages were up slightly too. These numbers led Joe Biden to quote:

“This is historic progress, pulling our economy out of the worst crisis in 100 years, driven in part by our dramatic progress in vaccinating our nation and beating back the pandemic as well as other elements of the American Rescue Plan”.

Interestingly 40% of the job gains came in the hospitality & leisure industry. 150 million Americans are now fully immunised allowing the US to lift restrictions for businesses. It’s a hint that Australia could take to achieve higher breadth and depth of vaccinations. Far better we all go and get vaccinated than lock people up and lock the country down. If the US can do it with 330 million people surely Australia can do a bit better with 24 million people.

What were the highlights and companies that we focussed on this period? Members can find out in a 30 minute video from Fahd and Moin, below, including a deep dive into another company that seems to have currently bottomed.

The ASX VIX (volatility index) has seesawed remains currently under 12.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Automotive

“To put it a simpler way: electric vehicles account for less than 1 per cent of vehicles globally at the moment. To reach net zero emissions that needs to be much closer to 100 per cent within 30 years. So that’s at least a 100-fold increase ahead, just for vehicles” 

Robyn Denholm, Tesla chairwoman

Aviation

“Space [exploration] has always been a competitive environment…These new players [SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, etc] are here to stay, I think, and we’re working with them” 

James Taiclet, CEO, Lockheed Martin Corporation

Workplace & Employment

“There isn’t a CEO I speak to who isn’t seeing their industry transforming at the moment in many different ways, from their customer behaviours to the actual structure of its competitive nature” 

Jane Fraser, CEO, Citigroup Inc

“Of course, working at home just went crazy, but those that did a temporary solution are now realising this is the way I’m going to run my life for the future, maybe working hybrid 50-50 [home-office], so now I will upgrade my lighting and chair, so we are seeing the second wave of those investments” 

Jan Gardnerg, CEO, IKEA Australia

“I think most businesses and companies have moved into remote-only work with their organic teams and they’ve noticed that this is actually a pretty viable way of working and because of that, they’ve been also more open to figuring out how to integrate freelancers into that mix. So that has been a massive tailwind” 

Micha Kaufman, CEO, Fiverr International Ltd [top-tier global freelance marketplace]

Technology

“We just have never seen customer demand like this” 

Marc Benioff, CEO, Salesforce.com Inc

“We see three important industry trends now…The first trend is consumption upgrades as people spend the most time on their devices, leaving them to buy more devices and upgrade more often…The second trend is the infrastructure upgrade. The ever-growing use of online applications has not only increased the demand, but also raised the bar for ICT [information & communications technology] infrastructure…The third trend is application upgrade” 

Yang Yuanqing, CEO, Lenovo Group [worlds biggest PC company]

“We have found that clients on average have typically only moved about 20 per cent of their operations to the cloud. And the big thing that clients are now trying to solve is how you go from 20 per cent on the cloud to 80 per cent on the cloud” 

Matt Coates, Managing Director, Accenture ANZ

“The fact that almost one in three households [4 million out of 12 million] is not using the NBN today, illustrates the dynamic nature of the market” 

Market Statement, NBN Co Ltd

Electronics & Chip Shortage

“If you want electronics, buy them now. Otherwise, next year I think it will be very difficult to find anything” 

Serena Ross, CEO Circuitwise [Australian electronics manufacturer for medical device industry]

Media & Entertainment

“For markets that are opening up, where people are going back to school, going back to work, returning to their normal“The importance of the PC extends far beyond work and school. In many cases, this has become the entertainment center of the home from streaming and content creation to the rise of gaming and eSports” 

Enrique Lores, CEO, HP Inc

Residential Property & Households

“Coming through the other side of the pandemic…my view is that as first home buyers — particularly who look at apartments and smaller places and so forth — come out of the market, that volume will probably be replaced by investors” 

David Bailey, CEO, AFG Ltd

“In Australia, the significant uptick in housing approvals is now translating to increased building activity, with our sales particularly strong in Queensland and Western Australia over recent months” 

Lindsay Partridge, Managing Director, Brickworks Ltd

“We all can see that affordable homes are not coming forward, prices are just continuing to go up…we believe people will continue to want a home but will demand more value out of every dollar spent. That means for the future we will see much more competition into the affordable and smart home solutions” 

Jan Gardnerg, CEO, IKEA Australia

Banking & Finance

“That business [commercial banking] is really exploding with newborn digital players, as well as more and more companies that are looking at going into different geographies” 

Jane Fraser, CEO, Citigroup Inc

“There could be some pent-up demand out of COVID, but my belief is there is going to be more steady continuous momentum during the next couple of years as many businesses start shifting their financials to the cloud” 

Chano Fernandez, CEO, Workday Inc

Payments & Lending

“Open banking [sharing banking data with verified third parties] is a trend” 

Michael Miebach, CEO, Mastercard Inc

“So, what you’re seeing is that even as people are up and about and going into stores and card-present [payments] is recovering, card-not-present [payments] is still almost 60% above 2019 levels. So, you’re starting to see that that card-not-present is not slowing down, even as card-present recovers to, let’s say, almost pre-pandemic levels” 

Vasant Prabhu, CFO, Visa Inc

Agriculture, Food & Beverage

“Food production is Australia’s biggest manufacturing sector, with a third of all manufacturing jobs and over 14,000 food businesses. With our total food exports going up by 60 per cent since our first Global Food Forum in 2013, I’m confident more and more countries will be looking for safe Australian food as global markets realign” 

Anthony Pratt, CEO, Visy Industries

“There is increased competitive activity when it comes to milk supply in Australia. So, we are seeing some of our competitors that are offering higher milk prices” 

Kai Brockmann, COO, Saputo Inc [one of the worlds largest dairy processing companies]

Energy, Raw Materials & Resources

“Australia has the minerals to power the renewable energy age throughout the world in the coming years” 

Robyn Denholm, Chairwoman, Tesla Inc 

“Miners continue to benefit from global commodity consumption growth. Decarbonisation [is] expected to generate a structural change in metal demand including lithium, copper, and aluminium. Miners [are] continuing to increase their efforts to decarbonise their supply chain” 

Market Statement, Worley Ltd

“If our solution is entirely just to get a green world, we’re going to have much higher inflation, because we do not have the technology to do all this, yet. That’s going to be a big policy issue going forward too: Are we going to be willing to accept more inflation if inflation is to accelerate our green footprint?” 

Larry Fink, CEO Blackrock Inc

“Analysis by the International Energy Agency shows that half the global reductions required to achieve net zero will come from technologies that are not yet ready for commercial deployment” 

Angus Taylor, Federal Energy Minister

Commodities

“Although doubling in production over the past decade [and now the world’s second largest steel producer behind China] India is considered at an early stage of development with consumption per capita around a third of the global average” 

Andrew Harding, CEO, Aurizon Holdings Ltd

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More updates on the market and highlights video for members follow below.

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And so the ‘Sell in May’ period may finally be done. The market as a whole is at record highs, but parts of it, certain sectors don’t necessarily feel that way. Short attacks on many companies, including some we hold in our folio, added to the volatility our portfolio experienced.

The ASX 200 (XJO) briefly traded above 7400 as banks, industrials and healthcare moved higher. Technology was flat. Miners like BHP were down so far this month.

After a spike, crypto stayed true to its volatile character and crashed by 50%. We’ve heard the analogy, when everyone at the BBQ and the Uber drivers are asking about <insert any overhyped asset>, then it’s probably the peak.

It is an interesting time indeed. Are we out of the worst phase of the economic part of this crisis? Read on to find out. Members can also see a 30 minute video from Fahd and Moin, below, analysing our portfolio performance and a deep dive into a company that seems to have currently bottomed.

The ASX VIX (volatility index) has seesawed over May and into June and is currently under 12. Interestingly, the VIX in the US has gone up higher.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Aviation

“Airlines will disappear. Weak airlines will become weaker, strong airlines will become stronger and hopefully margins come back to at least pre-crisis margins…So, I think once this crisis is behind us, we’ll look at a more healthy industry” 

Carsten Spohr, CEO, Lufthansa AG

Automotive

“We’re seeing nice improvement as it relates to the supply situation, more drivers coming on the road, more supply hours” 

Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO, Uber Technologies Inc

“The business continues to benefit from increased use of private vehicles compared to public transport and an increase in domestic drive holidays” 

Market Statement, AMA Group Ltd

Workplace & Employment

“Most significantly, unemployment is falling and there are more people employed now than pre-COVID” 

Peter King, CEO, Westpac Banking Corporation

“SEEK ANZ continues to benefit from record high levels of SME hiring activity” 

Andrew Bassat, CEO, Seek Ltd

“Consumer sentiment has improved, and the Australian economy has largely emerged from the pandemic evidenced by, among other things, rising house prices, the unemployment rate returning to pre-pandemic levels, and job advertisement, at 13 year highs” 

Grant Kelley, CEO, Vicinity Centres

“Many companies have downsized these [internal] hiring teams and suddenly, with the end of COVID-19 pandemic in sight, companies may want to hire more people. But because they have already downsized their hiring teams, they need to hire people to be in the hiring team. That’s the situation many companies find right now” 

Hisayuki Idekoba, CEO, Recruit Holdings Co Ltd [one of the largest HR/staffing companies in the world]

“People have rebelled, they don’t want to travel two hours to work and two hours back any more” 

Harry Triguboff, CEO, Meriton

Telecommunications & Technology

“For markets that are opening up, where people are going back to school, going back to work, returning to their normal life, it appears they’re taking mobile games with them” 

Frank Gibeau, CEO, Zynga Inc [multinational mobile videogame company] 

“We now see over two-thirds of our bookings come through the mobile devices” 

Glen Fogel, CEO, Booking.com Holdings

“Customers are now seeking to transform from a world where data informs people to one in which data drives operations directly. Data drives digital transformation. Data is the beating heart of the modern enterprise”

Frank Slootman, CEO, Snowflake Inc

“The market is only about 25% into this entire cloud journey…what a hybrid [a combination of public & private] cloud environment does is it’s going to start breaking down those barriers to scale that 25% even faster. What barriers am I talking about? Data sovereignty, latency and security and regulatory requirements” 

Jim Kavanaugh, CFO, IBM Corporation

Semiconductors

“All of our businesses have more demand than supply. I will argue in the current environment if you’re a semiconductor company and you don’t have more demand than supply, you should be worried about it because we have everything in short [supply]” Cristiano Amon, CEO, Qualcomm Inc [leading global semiconductor manufacturer]

Global Economy

“The business environment has changed sharply, compared to three years ago…The prolonged impact of COVID-19 trade friction between the United States and China and increase in your raw material costs are all having an effect”  

 Satoshi Tsunakawa, CEO, Toshiba Corporation

Domestic Economy

“The biggest issue we are most anxious about right now is consumer confidence — actually now it is pretty good. But it is hard to believe it will continue” 

Brad Banducci, CEO, Woolworths Group Ltd

Residential Property & Households

“I think that people have understood and consumers, homeowners have realised that equipping their home, making it a joyful, a pleasant place to be, is something important that we have learned during the crisis and that will be kept moving forward” 

Eric Rondolat, CEO, Signify N.V. [parent company of Philips Lighting/multinational lighting corporation]  

Consumer Spending & Retail + E-commerce

“We feel that the next phase of e-commerce revolution will be merchant led. Thousands of new businesses have started during the past year that never even considered a brick-and-mortar store. This changes the shopping equation fundamentally” 

Ajay Virmani, CEO, Cargojet Inc [international air freight group]

“Athleisure and fitness consumer trends continued to drive strong [shoe] demand” 

Richard Johnson, CEO, Foot Locker Inc

Agriculture, Food & Beverage

“Meat and Livestock Australia has revised down cattle slaughter forecasts to their lowest level in 36 years and a fall of 11% on 2020 levels. The national cattle herd is also coming off its lowest level in 25 years, in 2020” 

Hugh Killen, CEO, Australian Agricultural Company

“Australian beef price or selling prices is very, very high” 

Wesley Filho, CEO, JBS SA [world’s biggest meat processor]

“The hiring demand [in hospitality] is increasing at a rapid speed…In the past 2 or 3 decades, this is the most difficult period to hire someone” 

Hisayuki Idekoba, CEO, Recruit Holdings Co Ltd [one of the largest HR/staffing companies in the world]

Travel, Leisure

“Corporate travel, including the small business segment, is now back to around 65 per cent of pre-COVID levels, and increasing month-on-month” 

Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas Airways Ltd

“This is a global phenomenon…COVID created a step functional change where people who may never have thought about alternative [non-traditional] accommodations, now they’re thinking I want to go to a home that’s not near people, maybe near the beach or near the mountains and I feel safer there” 

Glen Fogel, CEO, Booking.com Holdings

“Leisure demand is growing strongly, with deferred international holidays converting into multiple domestic trips” 

Market Statement, Qantas Group Ltd

Energy, Raw Materials & Resources

“In the last three months, material prices have gone up further to, I would say, unprecedented levels. I think all basic materials, copper, nickel, zinc, aluminium, they’re all very high double-digit up. I think the most extreme is steel” 

Peter Coleman, CEO, Woodside Petroleum LtdNico Delvaux, CEO, ASSA ABLOY [world’s largest lock manufacturer]Peter Coleman, CEO, Woodside Petroleum Ltd

“We have a buoyant and transforming energy sector. It is indeed an incredible moment for us and for the industry…Renewables development is booming and the world is expecting to more than triple its renewable capacity over the next 20 years” 

Catherine MacGregor, CEO, ENGIE S.A [world’s biggest independent power producer]

“If you look at the remainder of this year, the demand in China and demand in the rest of the world is really just growing very, very quickly and that makes perfect sense, because when you step back and think about where you’re using aluminium, it’s in transportation, it’s in consumer durables, it’s in electrification, it’s in automotive.” 

Roy Harvey, CEO, Alcoa Corporation [top tier global aluminium producer]

Inflation

“We’re seeing very substantial inflation. It’s very interesting. We’re raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted” 

Warren Buffett, CEO, Berkshire Hathaway Inc

“Looking ahead, we’re facing a significantly higher inflationary environment. More specifically, we’re seeing increases in commodities, freight and labour costs” 

Daniel Servitje, CEO, Grupo Bimbo [world’s largest baked goods conglomerate including Sara Lee]

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More updates on the market and highlights video for members follow below.

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The quiet, deceptive bull market continues. The numbers show almost 7,100 points for the ASX 200 with a high last week of almost 7,200. The reality is a different kind of K shaped pattern emerging with the technology and related sectors that did well last year, coming off the boil and Materials and banks etc. are seeing a rise. Also companies that were trading well above fair value are coming back to earth. Money is also being taken out of the riskier / more speculative end of the ASX and used in different ways. Crypto has increased in popularity. This is all part of the cycles a market goes through over time and as long term investors would attest to having experienced.

The Federal Budget was also announced for 2021, yesterday.

Federal Budget 2021 key takeaways

• Additional 1.9B allocated for vaccine rollout
• 1.5B for COVID related health, testing, respiratory clinics and telehealth
• Tax cuts for low and middle income earners. Individuals to get $1,080 and couples $2,160
• Additional 10,000 first home buyers able to buy with 5% deposit
• 10,000 single parents able to buy with a 2% deposit
• First Home Super Saver amount increased to 50k from 30k
• 60 years olds and over can contribute 300k to their super by downsizing home
• 19B for universities
• 17.7B in new aged care funding
• 15B for new terminals in Melbourne and Sydney
• Spend 13.2B for NDIS over 4 years
• 10B guarantee to make insurance cheaper in Norther Australia
• 2.3B for mental health and suicide prevention
• 2.1B allocated for aviation, tourism, arts and international education
• 2B for pre-schools
• 1.9B for national security over a decade
• 1.7B investment in childcare
• 1.6B for tech including clean hydrogen and energy storage
• 1.2B for digital infrastructure, skills and cybersecurity
• Launch of new patent box for medical and biotech sectors for concessional tax of 17% for income from new patents
• 1.1B funding from women’s safety
• 600M for community relief from natural disasters
• 480M for environment, 100M for ocean protection
• 170M to boost internet and mobile coverage in regional areas
• $450 monthly minimum income threshold removed for super guarantee

The ASX VIX (volatility index) has crept up close to 13. Interestingly, the VIX in the US has gone up higher.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Travel & Leisure

“We’ve seen strong demand since the [NZ travel] bubble was announced, with tens of thousands of bookings made in the first few days” 

Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas Airways Ltd

“Safety has always been an important consideration for travellers in terms of destination choice, and Australia has always ranked highly in this regard, but the latest research shows it is increasingly becoming a competitive advantage for Australia” 

Phillipa Harrison, MD, Tourism Australia

“So outside of China, I think pay television peaked about 800 million households, and that was several years ago that it peaked [so we have] lots of room to grow” 

Reed Hastings, Co-CEO, Netflix Inc

“It is very clear from both customer feedback and client activity that businesses are keen to get back on the road. Corporate travel and company success are highly correlated” 

Jamie Pherous, CEO, Corporate Travel Management Ltd

“Through the use of our products, business leaders were able to see that flexible work could and should be something that continues long after the pandemic. Not only because data shows it’s what employees want, but also because it’s what can help our environment” 

Bill Wagner, CEO, LogMeIn [remote working collaboration tool]

Workplace & Employment

“For every 100 employees, we may need seats for only 60 on average. This will significantly reduce our need for real estate” 

Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan Chase & Co.

“All tenants are saying those days [10 square meters per person] are gone. The reversal, going back to 14 square metres per person is a massive change for the market which will offset the demand drain caused by people working from home two days a week” 

David Harrison, CEO, Charter Hall Group

“I think we are entering a period where it starts to get less cool to work from home” 

Harold Goddijn, CEO, TomTom N.V.

“The pandemic has fundamentally changed the concept of work…This is going to drive the continued consumerisation of corporate IT and a new wave of innovation, from more versatile and secure technology” 

Enrique Lores, CEO, HP Inc.

“Operationally, capacity across labour and transport markets remains tight in all regions and we continue to see increasing levels of lumber inflation” 

Graham Chipchase, CEO, Brambles Ltd

Office Property

“Several lead indicators of office demand have now turned positive including elevated business confidence for the financial and professional services sectors and higher levels of job vacancies” 

Susan Lloyd Hurwitz, CEO, Mirvac Group

“Clearly, that [office building] pressure remains very acute right now particularly in densely populated gateway cities and will remain challenging for some time to come. However, we strongly believe the pressures on Office will recede from today’s extreme levels, as vaccine rollouts continue” 

Bob Sulentic, CEO, CBRE Group Inc

Healthcare

“AI [artificial intelligence] is technology’s most important priority, and health care is its most urgent application” 

Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corporation

“The Australian vitamin and dietary supplement category has been [negatively] impacted by structural shifts as a result of COVID-19” 

Market Statement, Blackmores Ltd

Telecommunications & Technology

“We heard from our customers that companies like Facebook, Amazon and Google were simply not doing their planned expansions and upgrades [of data centres] during COVID, even with all the pressure for more data and more bandwidth. As business conditions improve, we believe we will see a strong increase in investment in the space due to pent-up demand” 

Gayn Erickson, CEO, Aehr Test Systems Inc [worldwide provider of testing systems for semiconductor manufacturers]

“In terms of what we’ve seen in the demand environment, I think, it’s one of the strongest demand environments that we’ve seen for a while”

Salil Parekh, CEO, Infosys Ltd [top 10 multinational IT consulting & outsourcing firm]

“We’re going to see [with 5G] much like we did with 4G, applications explode that we don’t even know today. We have no idea what they’re going to be…I mean, if you go back to the early days of 4G, no one expected we would be carrying the computing power and the number of applications we carry our pockets every day” 

Chuck Robbins, CEO, Cisco Systems Inc

Venture Capital & Innovation

“We still have a long way to go before we see the level of venture funding that we need in order to meet the demand from our rapidly expanding innovation ecosystem” 

Yasser El-Ansary, CEO, Australian Investment Council

“We feel that the next two to three years will be the best there’s been for innovation and new companies since the 1994-99 era” 

Paul Bassat, CEO, Square Peg Ventures [Australia’s largest venture capital firm]

Global Economy

“I feel we’re going to be talking not just about COVID-19, but COVID-22 and COVID-24, We’re going to have the stop-start economy for quite a while. I think we’re going to need to be prepared for a long haul” 

Magnus Nicolin, CEO, Ansell Ltd

“Rising yields on the back of a robust recovery is a positive as opposed to rising yields solely on inflation concern. Moving away from very low rates lessens the search for yield and lessens distortions to financial and non-financial asset prices”     

Doug Peterson, CEO, S&P Global Inc

Domestic Economy

“As we sit before you today, we are facing the most positive economic conditions that we have seen in the six years this [senate] committee has been enquiring into the major banks” 

Shayne Elliott, CEO, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd

Supply & Logistics

“We are seeing in ports around the world there’s a lot of constraint. Constraint and rising activity create one thing and that is inflationary pressures, and we are seeing that. Pretty nominal impact to the first quarter [of 2021], we do anticipate seeing a larger impact as we move into Q2 and Q3” 

Dan Florness, CEO, Fastenal Company [multinational distributor of industrial, safety and construction supplies]

“We have been able to continue to supply customers with product despite tightness in raw material supply and disruptions in ocean freight capacity which has resulted in an increase in transportation transit times” 

Market Statement, Ansell Ltd

“Growth in our non-aviation commercial sectors has also contributed to strong diesel sales, and we are beginning to see recovery in domestic aviation sales as domestic travel resumes” 

Scott Wyatt, CEO, Viva Energy Group Ltd

Construction & Infrastructure

“The Australian Government’s economic recovery plan includes substantial investments in infrastructure construction. Spending on major projects in Australia is expected to average around $30 billion per year for the coming years” 

Juan Santamaria, CEO, CIMIC Group Ltd

“BlueScope is a very different type of steel company and is in a compelling position to take advantage of emerging trends, such as demand for lower density and regional housing and for e-commerce and logistics infrastructure” 

Mark Vassella, CEO, BlueScope Steel Ltd

“Investors have begun to return to the [residential] market, primarily focused on masterplanned communities but demand is also gathering pace in the apartment markets” 

Susan Lloyd Hurwitz, CEO, Mirvac Group

Residential Property & Households

“[Industry is] looking beyond this JobKeeper and HomeBuilder period and seeing that the normalisation of population growth [through immigration] needs to be addressed and, at the moment, the timelines around international borders is very unclear”   

Ken Morrison, CEO, Property Council of Australia

“We expect house prices to continue to grow through this year and next but not at the rapid levels we have seen in the first two months of the year” 

Matt Comyn, CEO, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd

“In some cultures where there was a longstanding do-it-for-me preference, we are seeing a new mindset emerge. COVID has created an environment in which people have not wanted to invite professionals into their homes. Therefore, to fix something in the home, one must do it themselves. We believe this trend has created a DIY tipping point in many markets and cultures around the world” 

Steve Brass, COO, WD-40 Company

Consumer Spending & Retail + E-commerce

“Consumer excitement and optimism is returning in ways it hasn’t since well before the pandemic, and we’re seeing a denim resurgence as more people are going out” 

Chip Bergh, CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

“Customers complete 28% of purchases on Amazon in three minutes or less, and half of all purchases are finished in less than 15 minutes. Compare that to the typical shopping trip to a physical store – driving, parking, searching store aisles, waiting in the checkout line, finding your car, and driving home. Research suggests the typical physical store trip takes about an hour” 

Jeff Bezos, outgoing CEO/Founder, Amazon Inc

“You only need to look at the US to see how the e-commerce market is playing out, and why we remain bullish about the shift from offline to online. We are at the start of this once in a generation shift” 

Mark Coulter, CEO, Temple & Webster Ltd

“Small business and consumer sellers are thriving” 

Jamie Iannone, CEO, eBay Inc

“I think more and more, especially in younger generations are interested in the re-commerce of pre-loved items and so it’s why we’re leaning in so much towards that” 

Jamie Iannone, CEO, eBay Inc

Food & Beverage

“We’re seeing this unique period where there is both a continuance of that at-home consumer behaviour, as well as increasing away-from-home behaviour” 

Michele Buck, CEO, The Hershey Company [one of the largest chocolate manufacturers in the world]

“We are seeing overall that some of the changes that [have] happened with consumers through this pandemic, like doing more delivery, like going through drive-thru, those we expect are going to be enduring” 

Chris Kempczinski, CEO, McDonald’s Corporation

Travel, Leisure & Transport

“Corporate travel, including the small business segment, is now back to around 65 per cent of pre-COVID levels, and increasing month-on-month” 

Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas Airways Ltd

“The current environment is characterised by extremely strong leisure demand – helped by the Federal Government’s half-price fare offer” 

Company Announcement, Qantas Airways Ltd

“The change we’ve actually seen is more people driving private transport and not using public transport” 

Robbie Blau, CEO, SG Fleet Ltd

Automotive & Microchip shortage

“Typically, carmakers will go for the latest and greatest [technology]” 

Harold Goddijn, CEO, TomTom N.V.

“I would suspect we’ll see this sort of [automotive market] buoyancy for a while yet but then we may see things start to contract marginally towards the end of the year” 

Mark Weaver, CEO, Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Group

“We are missing the most simple of chips that maybe only cost cents or dollars. That’s holding us up from building a product that costs $US75,000” 

Ola Kallenius, CEO, The Daimler Group [owner of Mercedes-Benz & worlds largest commercial vehicle manufacturer]

“We’ve had some of the most difficult supply-chain challenges that we’ve ever experienced in the life of Tesla” 

Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Inc

Energy & Resources

“What’s fundamentally changed now is the capital discipline in the [LNG] industry that wasn’t there before and obviously the focus on climate change…It’s gone from being almost an industry that were [climate change] deniers to an industry that has accepted we need to be part of the change” 

Peter Coleman, CEO, Woodside Petroleum Ltd

“The high iron ore price won’t last, given other lower cost countries with huge resources, and huge higher-grade resources, will come into production in future” 

Market Statement, Roy Hill [Hancock Prospecting’s WA iron ore mine]

“We are talking with a number of miners about building their own 5G private network on a mine location where they can provide connectivity. They do that…because to try and automate the mine with robotics they need sensors infused in everything, but that then needs to be communicated” 

Andy Penn, CEO, Telstra Corporation Ltd

“Favourable commodity prices support higher CapEx [capital expenditure] for mining customers. We continue to feel optimistic about mining” 

Jim Umpleby, CEO, Caterpillar Inc

Environmental, Social & Governance

“Climate change risks are deeply imbedded in the financial system and impact all sectors and asset classes” 

Louise Davidson, CEO, The Australian Council of Superannuation Investors [industry body for ESG issues of superfunds & institutional investors]

“Distinctions between the corporate brand and the consumer brand are blurry. They are now two sides of the same coin and you can’t build an inclusive family focused global consumer brand like McDonald’s unless the corporations actions give evidence to those attributes” 

Chris Kempczinski, CEO, McDonald’s Corporation

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More updates on the market and purchase entries for members follow below.

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After cracking the 7,000 point mark, the second half of April has been ‘Kangaroo’ like for the ASX. The earnings season in the US and talk tax increases have had a downward effect on their markets which have bled into the ASX.

The ASX VIX (volatility index) has remained around 13 to 11 this period.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Technology

“Cyber security has to be high on the agenda for any listed company. If you’ve got something at stake, you’re a target. Every company on the ASX is utterly dependent on technology, but how many of these boards are ensuring that the risks are understood and appropriately responded to?”

Aidan Tudehope, MD, Macquarie Telecom Group Ltd

“For the larger and more complicated enterprise deals, being face-to-face for some of that sales cycle, as well as the implementation will [continue] to have some degree of importance”

Phil Snow, CEO, FactSet Research Systems Inc

“As the market is showing optimism with regards to a potential COVID recovery, we are seeing demand returning from industrial customers”

Mark Adams, CEO, SMART Global Holdings Inc [global computer memory & storage provider]

Global Economy

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE [quantitative easing], a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom”

Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Clothing & Textiles

“Pre-COVID, there was already an unprecedented amount of change taking place in the apparel industry driven mostly by technology and the consumer, which the pandemic only accelerated. The new normal will not be a static state, rather an ever-increasing rate of change”

Stefan Larsson, CEO, PVH Corporation [international clothing conglomerate/owner of brands inc. Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger & Calvin Klein]

“The trends that existed before the pandemic are even more important now and will only continue to grow post the pandemic. For example, people wanting to live an active and healthy lifestyle combined with the growth in demand for technical athletic apparel that performs, and finally, the innate need to feel part of a community and to share a human connection with one another”

Calvin McDonald, CEO, Lululemon Athletica Inc

“Having been present there [manufacturing clothing] for more than 30 years, we have witnessed remarkable progress within the Chinese textile industry. Being at the forefront of innovation and technology, China will clearly continue to play an important role in further developing the entire industry”

Helena Helmersson, CEO, Hennes & Mauritz AB [parent company of H&M clothing stores]

Automotive

“This is the strongest March result in two years with private buyers representing the largest proportion of new vehicle purchasers” 

Tony Weber, CEO, Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries

“It’s hard to know when the new car supply is going to continue to ramp up. I mean, they’re obviously facing some major chip shortages. I think the supply, the tightening of the supply is going to be around here for a while” 

William Nash, CEO, CarMax Inc [USA’s largest used car retailer]

“What we’re seeing in the UK is that drivers are saving money by going electric. It’s more cost-effective for us to provide an EV vehicle and more cost-effective for the driver. We’re starting to see that come into Australia now too, and one of the biggest drivers is that the cost of EVs is coming down. A lot of that is driven by the decrease in the price of batteries and the price of battery packs” 

Chris King, CEO, Splend [global car leasing operator to Uber drivers]

“Deloitte estimate that the CAGR, the compound annual growth rate for global EV growth sales will be around 29% over the next 10 years” 

John Chen, CEO, BlackBerry Limited [BlackBerry is now a car software provider]

Food & Beverage

“Psychology experts assert that it takes on average, 66 days for a new behaviour to become habitual…we are nearly 400 days into the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers have adapted to at-home eating and formed new habits that we expect to sustain well beyond the current conditions and early data supports our hypothesis” 

Sean Connolly, CEO, Conagra Brands Inc [multinational packaged foods brands conglomerate including brands Birds Eye & Healthy Choice]

“Our projections show that Australian non-food online retailing has more than five years of growth in 11 months. Non-food retail sales hit $2.1bn in January 2021, which would have taken until April 2025 in line with the pre-COVID-19 growth trajectory” 

Vanessa Brennan, Partner, Retail, Consumer and Digital Consulting, PricewaterhouseCoopers

Energy & Resources

“What sometimes gets lost is that when you look at the resource sector in Australia, it has an economic impact locally but that is tenfold regionally. Don’t underestimate how significant an impact Australia played in allowing China’s economy to continue to rebound like it did, to be able to allow Japan and other regional economies to sustain themselves like they did [during COVID]”

Al Williams, CEO, Chevron Australia

Commercial Property

“The golden days of landlords milking retailers is gone. This [post COVID] is a complete reset” 

Paul Zahra, CEO, Australian Retailers Association

“If customers are choosing to shop a brand in store in a shopping centre then, yes, that’s a relationship with the landlord. If customers are choosing to shop online because we’ve invested tens of millions of dollars in infrastructure then landlords have nothing do with that” 

Mark McInnes, CEO, Premier Investments Ltd

“Data centre demand is pushing industrial land prices up across the country” 

Cameron Grier, ANZ Industrial & Logistics Director, CBRE Group

Residential Property

“Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained” 

Dr Philip Lowe, Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia

“There is definitely a sense of buyers having a fear of missing out as they know prices are rising” 

Dan White, MD, Ray White Group

“It [current property market] is a bit different from what we’ve seen in the past. It hasn’t made investors come in and speculate and increase prices. This has all been about owner-occupiers. It is supply-and-demand driven as opposed to anything else” 

George Frazis, CEO, Bank of Queensland Ltd

“Trying to control prices through taxes and what not, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn’t. I’d lean to more supply, to me if you have a supply/demand issue, let’s see how you can do that by increasing supply” 

Peter King, CEO, Westpac Banking Corporation

Retail

“I think if you ask anybody that’s providing a product these days, we’ve seen a seismic shift [to online] over the last 12 months” 

Gary Medved, CEO, Mace Security International inc [global manufacturer of personal safety & security products]

Agriculture

“Australia, right now, we don’t have a great statistic from the country, but my guess is that Australia is probably processing less than 100,000 cattle per week, has been this way since last quarter. It’s not new, and the normal would be 140,000” 

“Farm condition or ranch condition in Australia is extremely good and they received even more rain this week pretty much all over the place…So we’re going to continue to see a very strong retention and rebuild of the [cattle] herds in Australia”

Andre Nogueira, CEO, JBS Inc. [world’s largest beef processor]

Travel & Leisure

“The car rental shortage is a critical problem but at the moment there’s not much we can do about it” 

Luke Martin, CEO, Tourism Industry Council of Tasmania

“Around 38 per cent of Australian tourism businesses have told us they’re cutting jobs and reducing workforce hours to stay viable with the ending of JobKeeper, Sixty per cent of tourism enterprises are in a weaker position since COVID-19, 47 per cent remain open but have fewer staff, and the end of JobKeeper is having a major impact on exposed sectors” 

Simon Westaway, Executive Director, Australian Tourism Industry Council

“We’ve experienced significant latent demand upon opening new sailings this summer. In fact P&O [Cruises] opened to a single biggest booking day in seven years on the announcement of coastal sailings for its two ships this summer” 

Arnold Donald, CEO, Carnival Corporation [world’s largest cruise ship company]

International Education

“As a sector [ESL – English as a Second Language] that’s 100 per cent reliant on foreign nationals, we’re seeing other sectors like aviation and tourism being singled out [for COVID relief], but nothing dedicated for our sector at the moment, which is really disturbing”

Brett Blacker, CEO, Education Australia [national body for the English language sector of international education]

Transport & Logistics

“Reforms to address climate change are ushering in an era of modal shift for freight, from polluting and congested road travel to efficient higher speed rail service. This will drive significant growth in railcar demand in the years to come above and beyond replacement demand growth” 

Bill Furman, CEO, The Greenbrier Companies Inc [global manufacturer/repairer of railcars]

“Rail freight traffic has actually grown over pre-crisis levels in some countries” 

Bill Furman, CEO, The Greenbrier Companies Inc [global manufacturer/repairer of railcars]

“The spot rate on containers has gone up massively – there are less containers and less ships so there’s more demand than supply” 

Andre Reich, CEO, The Reject Shop Ltd

Inflation

“No matter what commodity you look at, whether its poly[ethylene], resin, oil or gas, commodity prices are up and a lot of them impact raw material costs” 

Bernie Brookes, Exec Chairman, Colette [handbag & jewellery retailer]

“As we navigate the current environment, we are seeing input cost inflation accelerate in many of our categories and across the industry” 

Sean Connolly, CEO, Conagra Brands Inc [multinational packaged foods brands conglomerate including brands Birds Eye & Healthy Choice]

More updates and purchase entries for members follow.

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April has been off to a better start so far in week 1. A string of good days has seen the ASX 200 get almost to 7,000 points. (Broke 7000 but closed at 6,999 points on Thursday 8th Apr 2021). This is a 14-month high (since Feb 2020).

The ASX VIX (volatility index) had dropped nicely down to 11.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Travel & Leisure

“In some cases, we think the airfares could be half of what they were pre-Covid and that will be there to stimulate demand. Internationally it’s going to take a while for it to recover to 2019 levels” 

Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas Group

Retail

“The consumer is really clear that they want to get what they want, when they want it, how they want it and they want a seamless, premium digital and physical experience. In fact, in many cases, they don’t see a difference between digital and physical” 

John Donahoe, CEO, Nike Inc

“Our brands remain well positioned to capitalise on consumer trends that have seen increased participation in surfing, camping and hiking” 

Xavier Simonet, CEO, Kathmandu Holdings Ltd

“One of the most interesting things we have seen in the last year is also the emergence of new cohorts of young DIY’ers, with a big increase in motivation, new skills and enthusiasm for DIY. Recent surveys we undertook across our market highlight that 18 to 34-year-olds have done more home improvement than any other age group…All of this is very encouraging for the future of our industry” 

Thierry Garnier, CEO, Kingfisher plc [multinational home improvement retailer]

Construction & Infrastructure

“I know that our competitors in Australia may have [based on their communicated guidance] a little bit of a different view on this but from what we see, also on the back of good infrastructure pipelines, there are significant infrastructure programs locally by state and nationally in place, we are optimistic for Australia” 

Dominik von Achten, CEO, HeidelbergCement Group [one of the world’s largest building materials companies]

“We are seeing very strong detached housing building approvals in Australia” 

Todd Barlow, MD, Washington H. Soul Pattinson Ltd

Domestic Housing

“I think they [house prices] will level out because people will run out of buying capacity” 

Lindsay Partridge, CEO, Brickworks Ltd

Food & Beverage

“Stores with fresh food fast have been performing well relative to control [status quo] stores within the same markets” 

Brian Hannasch, CEO, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc [one of the world’s largest convenience store operators]

Transport & Logistics

“FedEx is prepared to transport vaccines to more than 220 countries and territories for as long as necessary to help eradicate COVID-19” 

Fred Smith, CEO, FedEx Corporation

Cryptocurrencies

“It’s more a speculative asset [cryptocurrencies] that’s essentially a substitute for gold rather than for the dollar” 

Jerome Powell, Chairman, US Federal Reserve

“You can now buy a Tesla with Bitcoin” 

Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Inc

Automotive

“Australia is easily the most hostile environment for electric vehicles in the world” 

Behyad Jafari, CEO, Electric Vehicle Council [Australia’s national EV industry body]

“Every six months we do an update with a [Volkswagen] board meeting on the EV environment in Australia. They are sitting in waiting for something to change [improving regulations], you know, but nothing ever changes” 

Michael Bartsch, MD, Volkswagen Australia

“We also continue to be restrained from hitting full manufacturing potential given almost daily [vehicle] component availability challenges” 

Michael Happe, CEO, Winnebago Industries Inc

Inflation

“I cannot see a long-term rise in inflation. I talk to the chief executives who occupy Charter Hall’s $50 billion portfolio. No one I talk to predicts a wage breakout and technology will continue to be a wage deflator” 

David Harrison, CEO, Charter Hall Group

“We are seeing it across the globe, we are seeing inflation and it’s broad-based across commodities, across logistics, across things like aluminium and steel and so whenever you see this kind of broad-based inflation and it’s global, that’s an environment where you are going to realise net pricing [see less discounting]” 

Jeff Harmening, CEO, General Mills Inc [world’s 6^th biggest food producer]

Employment & Workforce

“As employees return to offices, companies will discover that hybrid is hard to get right. Every meeting might have a remote participant but it’s not going to feel the same as when everyone was remote…Individual work will be different too, as it will often include the need to jump on a video call without distracting others” 

Jim Keane, CEO, Steelcase Inc [largest office furniture manufacturer in the world]

Technology

“Creation and consumption across phones, tablets and desktops is exploding” 

Shantanu Narayen, CEO, Adobe Inc

“All the CEOs that I’m talking to, those who’ve already invested in digital are absolutely doubling down because they recognise that this is the way to further differentiate” 

Shantanu Narayen, CEO, Adobe Inc

Energy & Resources

“They [energy storage batteries] are getting cheaper and cheaper by the minute” 

Brett Redman, CEO, AGL Energy Ltd

---

More updates on the market and purchase entries for members follow below.

---

The market is attempting a recovery in the latter half of March, heading back over the 6,800 mark and staying there.

The ASX VIX (volatility index) has dropped down from around 13 to 11 this month.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Domestic Economy & JobKeeper

“For inflation to be sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range, wages growth needs to be materially higher than it is currently. This is the basis for our assessment that the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024” 

Dr Philip Lowe, Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia

“There has never been a time where there has been such enormous disruption of industries, technology change, changes to consumer behaviours and ways of working” 

Rob Scott, CEO, Wesfarmers Ltd

“The reality is that the so-called [post JobKeeper] cliff that we all feared is a very, very shallow cliff, if at all” 

Shayne Elliott, CEO, ANZ Bank Group Ltd

“It feels like customers are becoming more prudent in terms of their spending – we’ve definitely seen that change in the last month” 

Andre Reich, CEO, The Reject Shop Ltd

“As confidence builds the savings rate will reduce to more normal levels, which will be another retail stimulus effect dropping into the economy” 

Ian Bailey, MD, Kmart Group

Global Economy

“At the Fed [Federal Reserve], we will continue to provide the economy the support that it needs for as long as it takes” 

Jay Powell, Chair, US Federal Reserve

“We’re also seeing an increasing tailwind from inflation, which started in commodities, but is now flowing through in the finished goods due to rising input, manufacturing, and transportation costs” 

Kevin Murphy, CEO, Ferguson plc [multinational plumbing/heating product company]

Global Semiconductor Chip Supply Crisis

“We’re seeing some constraints in the semiconductor supply chain. It’s impacting global automotive. The build rates have been rolled down from where we thought we would be as we entered into the year. We’re seeing that connection between electronics and automotive ever more impactful” 

“The digital-first world, everybody talked about the trends that accelerated in 2020. The digital-first world [has] put a big increase in demand as we’ve seen on semiconductor fabrication” 

Mike Roman, CEO, 3M Company [global industrial conglomerate]

“There’s a serious imbalance in supply and demand of chips in the IT sector globally” 

Koh Dong-jin, Co-CEO, Samsung Electronics

“We expect the situation to become critical during the second quarter and have therefore decided to take measures [reducing car production]” 

Market Statement, The Volvo Group

Technology & Telecommunications

“Today the data centre industry is supporting an enormous boom in technology and information creation, all of which are powered by computers and global networks that consume significant amounts of electricity” 

Craig Scroggie, CEO, NextDC Ltd

“Our ageing [national fibre] infrastructure isn’t really designed for where the world is going. When these were built, the cloud and Space X weren’t around” 

Bevan Slattery, Founder, HyperOne/Megaport/NextDC/PIPE Networks/Superloop

“Even as we can now see the other side of the pandemic – people have learned behaviours of the new digital world. It’s work from anywhere, do from anywhere – that world is here to stay. I believe the available opportunity for us is expanding” 

Michael Dell, CEO, Dell Technologies Inc

Automotive

“Within 2 life cycles the car industry will change dramatically, radically. Profit pools will shift from conventional cars, first into EVs [electric vehicles] and then radically into software. That has a lot to do with automated driving, which is going to happen” 

Herbert Diess, CEO, Volkswagen AG

“Technology companies entering the car industry means that the car industry has a future and choices for customers will widen” 

Akio Toyoda, CEO, Toyota Motor Corporation

“2021 is the tipping point toward EVs [electric vehicles]” 

Mark Reuss, President, General Motors Company

Healthcare

“Technology is rapidly going to disrupt the [healthcare] industry which has been really hard to change” 

Tom Seymour, CEO, PwC Australia

Energy & Resources

“All of us in the resources sector, including our colleagues in the coal industry, know that [environmental] change is coming” 

Andrew Forrest, Chairman, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

“We haven’t seen any change in our relationship with our customers. We are seeing ongoing strength in demand” 

Elizabeth Gaines, CEO, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

Commercial Property

“We’re seeing rents come down but it’s not a material number at this stage. As we get through the latter half of this year, vacancy rates will probably increase in shopping centres, so rental deals will become better” 

Andre Reich, CEO, The Reject Shop Ltd

Housing & Construction

“Everybody’s expecting a boom and so, if there is a boom, that’s when subcontractors’ and suppliers’ prices rise. If you go in really cheap now and activity picks up, you’ll lose money. The subcontractors and supplier prices will go up” 

Scott Hutchinson, Chairman, Hutchinson Builders [one of Australia’s largest privately owned construction companies]

“Given the profile of work we now see in front of us, especially in the key civil infrastructure markets on the east coast and particularly in Queensland, and across various industries including rail, road, energy, water and defence, we are very confident that earnings will continue to grow at a strong rate in the coming years” 

Steven Boland, CEO, Acrow Formwork & Construction Services Ltd [national formwork/scaffolding company]

“The housing stimulus has created more demand than ever, it’s absolutely unprecedented. Builders are all fighting over a limited number of subcontractors and now are more worried about securing enough tradies to deliver the projects, than winning more work” 

Russ Stephens, CEO, Association of Professional Builders

Retail

“Last year, we suddenly discovered a number: $60 billion – which is money that Australians spend overseas. I think most retailers will never ever forget that number again. Whilst we feel for international tourism operators…while Australians can’t travel, the harsh reality is that money is staying in Australia and with low-interest rates being pretty good for the property market…[this has been] very good for retail.” 

Richard Murray, CEO, JB Hi-Fi Ltd

“Safety and hygiene are here to stay – we’ll be selling a lot of hand sanitiser for many years to come” 

Sarah Hunter, Managing Director, Officeworks

“Beauty is a habit-forming, high frequency purchase – our customers see beauty shopping as essential not discretionary” 

Tennealle O’Shannessy, CEO, Adore Beauty Group Ltd

E-Commerce

“It’s a long-term trend that’s been accelerated in the last year, but it’s early days for e-commerce” 

Dhivya Suryadevara, CFO, Stripe [US$95bn global payment processing software company]

Financial Markets

“There is no question that digitisation and technology is expanding access, and the expansion of that access breeds more participation [in equity markets]” 

David Solomon, CEO, Goldman Sachs Inc

Food & Beverage

[Due to eating more at home] “We are seeing no shortage of [butter] demand” 

Rene Dedoncker, MD, Fonterra Australia

Travel & Leisure

“We’re seeing an improving trend in forward bookings across the globe” 

Kyle Gendreau, CEO, Samsonite International S.A. [world’s biggest luggage manufacturer & retailer]

“I don’t want to talk about hearsay or the feedback we get, but I would not expect it to be realistic that more than 30-50 per cent of people [would be] vaccinated in the western world before [the northern hemisphere] summer next year” 

Detlef Trefzger, CEO, Kuehne+Nagel International AG [world’s 2nd largest freight company/major vaccine distributor]

“Regions that haven’t been able to snare the ‘drive market’ are now down by about 40 per cent year-on-year for forward bookings, according to our 1200 members across the nation” 

Simon Westaway, Executive Director, Australian Industry Tourism Council

“Strong social distancing rules are still in place within the community; the vaccine rollout remains in its infant stages; our international border is still slammed shut, and local consumer confidence has been rocked by ongoing rolling state border closures. Until those four blockages are removed, the industry is in dire trouble” 

Simon McGrath, CEO, Accor Hotels Australia

Manufacturing

“The next really ‘holy grail’ in textiles will be recycling… I believe that for this industry, it’s unacceptable that we don’t have proper recycling solutions, something a bit more comparable towards what the paper, steel, aluminium [industries] have” 

Stefan Doboczky, CEO, The Lenzing Group [global textile manufacturer]

“Labour is very expensive in this country. You need to make premium products that people want to pay for and ensure that you are manufacturing in a smart way” 

Darren O’Brien, CEO, Mondelez Australia [world’s 2^nd largest snack food company]

Education & Learning

“A growing global middle class and longer careers are driving lifelong and non-academic learning, particularly re[skilling] and upskilling, a trend that has been accelerated over the past year. This all adds up to a huge momentum in our industry” 

Andy Bird, CEO, Pearson Publishing PLC [multinational publishing & education company]

Workplace & Employment

“The gap between employment and learning is narrowing. Employers are becoming the universities of the future” 

Andy Bird, CEO, Pearson Publishing PLC [multinational publishing & education company]

“We don’t see anybody just saying, okay, we’re not sending you any new boxes…it is very steady in the business, if that someone sends us a box today, it will sit there for 15 years on average, that [tenure of box retention] has not changed during COVID, it didn’t change before COVID” 

William Meaney, CEO, Iron Mountain Inc [multinational document storage company]

“What Australia lacks is not the [tech sector workforce] talent, just the experience. When you are creating global platforms, getting the experience level in the country is a real key enabler” 

Anthony Eisen, Co-CEO, Afterpay Ltd

“I think you’re going to see a large creation of an onshore-centre-type workforce in this country in places like Adelaide, where you can get a labour arbitrage. You’re going to see a distribution of the workforce differently. COVID allowed us to do that” 

Tom Seymour, CEO, PwC Australia

More updates and purchase entries for members follow.

---

March started well before fading away toward the end of week 2 and rallying on the last Friday. Remember, this is after a week or so of turbulence and correction especially in the technology sector both locally and in the US.

The ASX VIX (volatility index) had crept back up, now just over 17.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

CEO Insights

Domestic Economy

“Australia is relatively well positioned having started from a position of fiscal and economic strength. We have a solid pipeline of infrastructure projects, the outlook of mining and agriculture exports is strong, and the community has benefited from the Governments significant income support measures” 

Matt Comyn, CEO, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd

“The economy is recovering, consumer and business confidence is strong, and the labour market has been much more resilient than expected. At the end of December there were 12.9 million employed Australians compared to 13 million in March 2020”

Peter King, CEO, Westpac Banking Corporation  

“Economic conditions in Australia have recovered strongly and the outlook is more positive” 

Rob Scott, CEO, Wesfarmers Ltd

Mining, Resources & Commodities

“Global steel demand exceeded expectations with record crude steel production in China, as well as robust global recovery” 

Market Statement, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

“The outlook for Australian iron ore investment [is] particularly solid. Ongoing capital and operating expenditure required to sustain the high levels of production in this sector will drive strong and steady demand for engineering construction and maintenance services” 

Market Statement, Monadelphous Group Ltd

“Record inflows in gold ETF’s indicates the strength of investor demand at a time of heightened risk & uncertainty, ultra-low interest rates, fiscal expansion and economic shutdown” 

Market Statement, Newcrest Mining Ltd

“The Commodities division, particularly Geochemistry, demonstrated a significant improvement in performance late in the second quarter which [has] continued into the third quarter of FY21” 

Raj Naran, CEO, ALS Ltd

“Commercial businesses, excluding aviation, to remain robust with potential to benefit from the gradual recovery in aviation and cruise segments” 

Market Statement, Viva Energy Australia Ltd

Construction & Infrastructure

“Our Industrial Services portfolio is benefitting from accelerating mining production and economic stimulus measures to generate building and infrastructure activity” 

Ryan Stokes, CEO, Seven Group Holdings Ltd

“Based on the continued, strong momentum in its business and expectations for continued growth in residential end markets, the Company is raising its outlook for fiscal year 2021” 

Market Statement, James Hardie Industries plc

“Whilst a challenging environment continues for construction of retail, office and accommodation projects, health and industrial construction remains positive, along with the long pipeline of large-scale civil projects” 

Market Statement, Big River Industries.

Commercial Property

“The impact on office demand is not clear, though it is likely to result in some reduction. However, this is expected to be most pronounced for older, secondary grade product as firms seek to upgrade to modern, highly sustainable spaces integrated with smart technology that enables them to seek efficiencies with their occupancies” 

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, CEO, Mirvac Group

“Strong demand from the digital economy continues to drive enduring change, sustaining activity and property fundamentals for our business” 

Market Statement, Goodman Group

Residential Property

“Cashed up homeowners, many of whom are prevented from travelling either domestically and internationally, are now largely working from home and as such, are reassessing their lifestyle and surroundings. This is positive for our industry as it results in homeowners either transacting or improving the asset value of their current home” 

Eddie Law, CEO, McGrath Ltd

“Australia’s property market appears to be on the march again” 

Owen Wilson, CEO, REA Group Ltd

Retail

“I’ve been doing retail since the late 1950s and I’ve never seen anything like this. We’ve seen ups and downs and recessions but retail in Australia has never seen this… That’s happening right across the world, it hasn’t stopped. In April, May and June, sales went through the roof and it hasn’t stopped in January and February” 

Gerry Harvey, Chairman, Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd

“Regional and suburban stores [sales] were relatively strong”

 John King, CEO, Myer Holdings Ltd

“Spectacular sales growth throughout all states” 

Market Statement, Beacon Lighting Group Ltd

“Households have accrued a large stock of savings through 2020 due to periods of restrictions, and fiscal and monetary stimulus. Together with an improving employment market and evidence of growth in wages and salaries, prospects for continued recovery in retail consumption are expected” 

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, CEO, Mirvac Group

Transport, Logistics & Supply

“The huge drop in international passenger flights has created a huge shortage in the cargo capacity that goes with them – meaning the value of freighter space has surged” 

Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas Group Ltd

“Global supply chains are under pressure to meet increasing consumer requirements and higher utilisation” 

Market Statement, Goodman Group

“Supply chain delays make it difficult to accurately predict sales revenue growth for the second half” 

Anthony Scali, CEO, Nick Scali Ltd

Automotive

“COVID-19 [is] driving unprecedented fluctuations in market conditions” 

Market Statement, Eagers Automotive Ltd

“Demand for vehicles across all our markets has been strong due to lower public transport usage, the absence of international travel and the evolution of more flexible working arrangements” 

Cameron McIntyre, CEO, Carsales.Com Ltd

“Vehicle supply expected to return to market in 4Q21 with normalisation of retail pricing” 

Market Statement, McMillan Shakespeare Ltd

Travel & Leisure

“Based on what we have seen so far, travellers have been keen to take off as soon as they have been allowed to do so, which should ultimately lead to a very solid rebound” 

Graham Turner, CEO, Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd

“This [travel returning to normal] isn’t some far away dream. It’s what we’re heading towards and it’s what we will get to in the next 12 – 18 months” 

Andrew Burnes, CEO, Helloworld Travel Ltd

Media & Advertising

“The advertising market clearly turned in late September, earlier and more sharply than we had anticipated, and this was led by television… The advertising market continues to show strength, with television in particular benefiting from a shift to ‘brand’ by major advertisers” 

Hugh Marks, CEO, Nine Entertainment Co

“Revenue has recovered strongly” 

Market Statement, oOh! Media Ltd

Technology & Telecommunications

“We saw an unprecedented spike in demand for [cybersecurity] devices throughout 2020 and expect this to continue this year. We are anticipating a high level of growth in automation, machine learning and data capture and analysis tools as businesses and governments prioritise efficiency and productivity within their operations” 

David Dicker, CEO, Dicker Data Ltd

Healthcare & Aged Care

“Surgical backlogs and latent demand for non-surgical services are expected to drive volumes as the general public’s comfort with the hospital environment improves.” 

Market Statement, Ramsay Health Care Ltd

“One sector where we have seen digitisation accelerate dramatically is, of course, in healthcare technologies” 

Andy Penn, CEO, Telstra Corporation Ltd

“Inadequate Commonwealth Government funding and prevailing uncertainty across the [aged care] sector needs to be urgently addressed in order to ensure provider viability and build adequate capacity for the future” 

Linda Mellors, CEO, Regis Healthcare Ltd

“In many parts of the world, we have continued to see an influx of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalisation for respiratory treatment. Healthcare professionals are dealing with pressures unlike anything they have faced before”

 Lewis Gradon, CEO, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd

Consumer Staples

“Sales for all Group businesses [except Hotels] are expected to decline in March to June compared to the prior year as we cycle COVID sales surge” 

Brad Banducci, CEO, Woolworths Group

“Convenience store sales growth was also strong as Coles Express continued to benefit from the shift in customer behaviour towards the convenience channel and avoiding larger, busier stores” 

Market Statement, Coles Group Ltd

Agriculture & Food

“Favourable weather conditions and recently firming fertilisers prices are expected to drive higher earnings in FY21” 

Market Statement, Incitec Pivot Ltd

“We experienced near optimal conditions across much of eastern Australia during the recent winter cropping season and this has translated into one of the largest crops in recent history” 

Robert Spurway, CEO, GrainCorp Ltd

“Inflation in red meat also continued in the second quarter with cattle prices at record highs” 

Market Statement, Coles Group Ltd

“Many restaurants remain closed or are having to adapt to reduced volumes and it will likely be some time before we see the food service sector return to normal” 

Hugh Killen, CEO, Australian Agricultural Company Ltd

“The increased consumer activity in these [domestic] markets is expected to deliver long term benefits through increased per capita consumption with more consumers now familiar with salmon as a weekly family menu item” 

Peter Bender, CEO, Huon Aquaculture Group Ltd

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More updates on the market and purchase entries for members follow below.

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This is a special reporting season update and highlights post for members.

Continue reading below.

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The market is now inching ever closer to the 7,000 mark. Only 120 points away now. Almost at pre-COVID levels.

The ASX VIX (volatility index) remains under 15.

Volatility doesn’t necessarily show market direction (up or down) but the range of average price changes over time.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index (XVI) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.

•  High readings indicate uncertainty (bearish)
•  Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias
•  Low readings indicate low volatility (bullish) and strong investor confidence.

More updates on the market and folio / watchlist companies for members follow.

Members should also check out the new article, The edge in investing lies beyond fundamental analysis.

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