Author: Law Linc

April 17, 2026

August Update – Week 3

Let’s take a different perspective on the market this week instead of the usual references to sideways moving Kangaroos.

Looking at the COVID cases trending down, we were curious to see what the infection rate (growth in cases) looked like superimposed on the ASX 200 chart from March 2020 to today.

Here it is.

Rate of cases go up, market goes down, cases start falling, market recovers.

Is it correlation, causation or something else?

We think it’s interesting albeit not something to read too much into. There are many more factors at play and it’s too simplistic to pin the market’s movements on one variable.

It does add credence to the theory that markets are generally forward looking, anticipating the worst before it eventuates. People expecting the worst is something already priced in.

This is also because of what ‘the market’ really is, covered in our recent article for members.

Members only updates follow below.

3 reasons why investing earlier builds more wealth

The cliche No time like the present is overused. You hear it in the context of buying a house too. What is missing and not looked at is the why starting earlier in the context of investing makes a difference and how it allows you to grow more wealth.

Reason 1 – Compounding needs time

The most important principle about investing, is that the earlier you start your investment journey the easier it gets to build your wealth. The main reason for this is that it allows your money to take advantage of compounding return. We have explained with examples in our article how compounding is one of the 3 reasons we beat index funds and short term trading on the share market.

Reason 2 – Learning earlier from mistakes

The other reason it is important to start early, is that you learn from your mistakes earlier. What this does is give you experience which cannot be learnt from a book.

A mistake you might make as 20-year-old with $500 is not going to be as costly as a mistake you make when you invest in your 40’s and lose your life savings.

Reason 3 – Growth Mindset and psychology

Starting earlier, even with a smaller amount means you learn by doing and as a result you experience the following scenarios:

  • Seeing your portfolio in red and what that feels like
  • Patience to allow the companies to grow and therefore your investment
  • Developing a detachment to short term price movements
  • Learning objective decision making by recognising when emotions like fear and greed influence us

These situations over time build resilience and make one have a much higher stress and risk tolerance.

Current market conditions an opportunity

With the virus crisis and the economy not fully recovered yet, there is no better than to start than now. Certain sectors and companies are trading at a discount. We use the Tabarruk Framework and Screening Process to identify these and invest in them.

Start with the basics

The most important step you take in your investment journey, is to pay yourself first. You need money to invest and if you don’t do that, there is absolutely no way you can build your net worth.

Regardless of the size of your paycheque right now, take the challenge to pay yourself next time you get your salary.

Decide what percentage of your income goes towards your future. If you want a conservative figure pay yourself 10%.

Put that money aside into an account where you cannot touch your money.

For those who struggle to make ends meet, don’t lose hope, we were there ourselves at a point in time.

I strongly recommend you read our upcoming series ‘Money Habits 101’.

Even for those who live month to month, work out objectively if your expenses are more than your income.

If they are then quickly make a plan and accept that flipping the scales to have your income be greater than your expenses may need some sacrifices and change in spending behaviour.

The next step is to have an emergency fund. There is no point starting your investment journey without an emergency fund. If an emergency strikes and you must touch your principle.

Ensure you keep paying yourself, till you have 4-6months of income set aside and then start your investment journey. If you think this will take too long to save up, then increase how much you pay yourself.

To earn more, you have to learn more

The best ‘non-financial’ investment you can make is in yourself.

Educate yourself, sign up to courses learn about investment, look at what successful investors are doing.

Be different, as most of the world is working on auto pilot and you need to chart your own unique path out of the rat race. This will allow you to make better, rational and educated decisions in your life.

To earn more you have to learn more.

Once you have got this far, you start looking at stocks and ETF’s. Explore all the options that are out there for you.

As someone who only invests in a Halal and ethical companies, my life is so much easier as my screening for the companies that fit our criteria makes the investing world that much smaller and the ability to pick good companies becomes easier.

Start early but stay for the long term

When investing, the best thing you can do for yourself is have a long-term mentality.

If you don’t have a long-term mentality, then this article is probably not for you.

The reason a lot of people make extremely bad decisions is because they have a get rich quick mentality.

Tabarruk’s and our personal investment success is due to the long-term investment approach we take.

Our focus is to invest in businesses that have good long-term prospects and a good history of positive return and yield.

The beauty in investing in these kinds of business when you start early, is that you have the luxury to wait.

Regardless of the price of the stock going up or down in a business you have invested in, it won’t you because you’ve understoof the business and their long-term prospects.

If anything, when the price is down, you just buy more. We cover this in The secret to buying at the bottom article.

When you invest with a long term mindset you understand that regardless of the economy booming or entering a recession, solid businesses always find a way to thrive and the market always recovers and stops for no one.

August Update – Week 2

The market this week stayed true to its Australian roots, being Kangaroo-like. Only difference from last week is bouncing around the 6,100 points compared to 6,000 as it has been previously.

Signs of recovery? Too early to tell.

For our portfolio, it has been an absolute rollercoaster with momentum swings in a couple of our holdings. We went from 70% in the green down to 48% and back up to 70% again today. We’ve seen enough Kangas to know what to do and stick to our plans.

Reminds us of this quote:

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”

Warren Buffet

Another milestone for us is having picked 5 companies since March that have more than doubled, or grown 100% plus in their share price. We fist-bumped over video to that. Another two holdings are close to doing the same.

We’re doing pretty well on the COVID front too. Us Victorians are doing our bit with stage 4 lockdowns, mandatory masks and our 1 essential trip out. Cases are down to the high 300s from a peak of 700+.

CEO Insights

Employment & Workforce

“We believe that the post-COVID world will see an increase in distributed [remote] work in all industries” 

Scott Farquhar, Co-CEO, Atlassian Inc

“If right now roughly 5% of the workforce is permanently at home pre-Covid, we think that will double. We think as much as 10%, 11% of the workforce could be at home permanently” 

Brett White, CEO, Cushman & Wakefield plc [global commercial real estate company]

Travel & Leisure

“The fixed costs to operate airports have not changed throughout this period, with runways still needing to be kept open and safety and security screening maintained despite the greatly reduced numbers of passengers” 

James Goodwin, CEO, Australian Airports Association

“We have seen increased [bookings] momentum in the latter half of July” 

Mark Hoplamazian, CEO, Hyatt Hotels Corporation

Chinese Economy

“China has been able to very, very quickly recover from the origin of the crisis. In our business, China is actually up compared to last year’s period, so we’ve seen higher numbers in demand then we used to see pre-crisis” 

Joe Kaeser, CEO, Siemens AG

US Economy

“If we continue down this path with no significant stimulus…we estimate that between 35-45% of 30 million small businesses in America will begin to permanently close by Labor Day [first Monday of September]. It is no longer a crisis. This is a five-alarm emergency” 

Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks Corporation

Retail & E-Commerce

“We see an even more pronounced fashion shift towards leisure. The increase in workplace flexibility is here to stay. And the majority of companies plan more and more permanent remote working and of course, when you sit at home, you don’t wear your suit, you don’t wear your tie, but you tend to wear sneakers from Adidas or hoodies” 

Kasper Rorsted, CEO, Adidas AG

“Goodman has seen increased demand for both temporary and permanent space from customers in the food, consumer goods and logistics sectors, particularly related to e-commerce operators and those transitioning to online” 

Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group

“Right now everybody needs to be pivoting digitally because that’s how consumers are interacting with companies, because they need to, I don’t know what will happen when they don’t need to [shop online post COVID-19]” 

Jim Clayton, CEO, Breville Group Ltd

Residential & Commercial Property

“The easing of restrictions in June led to an immediate increase in enquiry back to pre-COVID levels, which gives us confidence that demand [for seniors living] will quickly pick back up when restrictions lift again” 

James Kelly, CEO, Lifestyle Communities Ltd

“We’ve been surprised by the volume of [home loan] applications we received. At least so far, housing has been more robust that we have anticipated” 

Matt Comyn, CEO, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd

“Historically, in the early stages of most downturns, almost all occupiers facing a leasing renewal decision in a market shock do one or two things: they either delay that decision as long as they can or they try to agree with the building owner to renew on a short-term basis. I mentioned this because roughly 75% of leasing activity represents existing tenants with expiring leases” 

Brett White, CEO, Cushman & Wakefield plc [global commercial real estate company]

Transport & Logistics

“The impact coming from COVID-19 is incomparably larger than the Lehman failure [GFC]” 

Shuichi Ishibashi, CEO Bridgestone Corporation

“Our reading for now is that we will see [the COVID-19] impact and the impact will persist until the first half of 2022, so the severity will persist longer. However, thereafter, our future expectation is that people will start to move about, and the movement of goods will become much more invigorated. 

Shuichi Ishibashi, CEO Bridgestone Corporation

Media & Advertising

“I think as it relates to the sponsorship side, I think things went pretty quiet just in the early stage. As I said the first month or two of the virus period…We actually feel pretty good about the traction in the last few months. We’re actually in a pretty good place in terms of renewals so I think the sponsorship is a place we clearly believe there’s real room to grow” 

Chase Carey, CEO, Formula One Group

Insurance

“The prospects of lower-for-longer interest rates, increasing climate-related weather events, some continuation of heightened casualty loss trends and, indeed, losses directly arising from COVID-19, left insurers with almost no alternative but to materially increase pricing” 

Pat Regan, CEO, QBE Insurance Ltd

Energy

“[An] opportunity is the full exploitation of hydrogen as an energy-carrier of the future. Hydrogen has the potential to be a game-changer in the complete decarbonization of industry, transport and housing” 

Johannes Teyssen, CEO, E.ON SE [global major electricity utility company]

Members only updates follow below.

August Folio Update – Week 1

After ending July under 5900, the market started off August still cautious on Monday (3rd August) before following the US markets and rallying back over 6000 by lunchtime on Tuesday (4th August).

The rising cases in Victoria and stage 4 metro lockdown seemed to have little effect if anything on the market.

We’ve purchased shares in 1 new company, adding it to the folio. Purchase entry detailed below for members only.

We’ve also averaged down on some of our oldies but goodies. Also detailed in our purchase entries below.

These last round of purchases have us hit another milestone: over $100,000 invested in our portfolio since 10th March 2020.

Make sure you check out our two new articles:

  1. Mining poised to lead in the post pandemic recovery
  2. How much tax do you pay after selling shares on the ASX share market

CEO Insights

Aviation

“We believe that talk of a quick recovery is definitely at the optimistic end of the scale. A deep global recession has already started and consumer habits are changing quite dramatically. We’re seeing a rapid rise in unemployment across markets and even for those with jobs, we know some consumers will choose to save more”

Alan Jope, CEO, Unilever

“We are really seeing the strong demand across a number of brands for our business, very strong demand”

Brian Goldner, CEO, Hasbro Inc [world’s largest toy & game company]

“This pandemic might change people, might change attitudes, might change customer behaviors, but the desire for beauty and uniqueness will never change”

Remo Ruffini, CEO, Moncler SpA [global fashion brand]

Travel & Leisure

“I’m less optimistic today than I was 30 days ago”

Arne Sorenson, CEO, Marriott International Inc

“We’re seeing restaurants come back obviously faster than you see airlines or hotels coming back, but I also think what you’re seeing is there is an unbelievable demand for people to travel”

Steve Squeri, CEO, The American Express Company

“We’re surveying guests every week. And what they’re telling us is when they see a flattening of the curve, they want to get out [and travel]”

Michael Spanos, CEO, Six Flags Entertainment Corp [world’s biggest theme park company]

Consumer & Retail

“We believe that talk of a quick recovery is definitely at the optimistic end of the scale. A deep global recession has already started and consumer habits are changing quite dramatically. We’re seeing a rapid rise in unemployment across markets and even for those with jobs, we know some consumers will choose to save more”

Alan Jope, CEO, Unilever

“We are really seeing the strong demand across a number of brands for our business, very strong demand”

Brian Goldner, CEO, Hasbro Inc [world’s largest toy & game company]

“This pandemic might change people, might change attitudes, might change customer behaviors, but the desire for beauty and uniqueness will never change”

Remo Ruffini, CEO, Moncler SpA [global fashion brand]

Technology

“Digital technology is no longer viewed as just new project starts, but it’s becoming perhaps the most key for business resilience”

Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corporation

“Information technology has become so complex that there’s no single vendor that can supply all the needed software and hardware”

Mary Stojcevski, CFO, Dicker Data Ltd

“We believe digitisation is a catalyst and key change agent for our industry, enhancing customer experience and the safety of our products, transforming our whole value chain, opening up new opportunities to create value for our customers, our users and our employees. All of this is happening faster than ever, changing the way we work”

Thomas Oetterli, CEO, Schindler Holding AG [global elevator/escalator maker]

Transport & Logistics

“The ageing of buildings is slowing on, let’s say the appetite or the demand of new technology is increasing. I do not worry about the long-term [demand drivers of our industry]”

Thomas Oetterli, CEO, Schindler Holding AG [global elevator/escalator maker]

“On the cargo side, the reduction of belly cargo capacity has led operators to utilize essentially all available freighters. Significant use of passenger aircraft as freighters continue, though yields are starting to return to normal as more belly cargo capacity comes back online. We’ve also seen improvement in global fleet utilization. Around 65% of the fleet is now back in service with hundreds of aircraft reactivated weekly. Utilization metrics are improving as airlines resume more of their network and schedules”

David Calhoun, CEO, The Boeing Company

Automotive

“Automotive sales in June and the first part of July are above the prior comparable period and show strong double‐digit demand growth. Recent empirical and anecdotal feedback suggests workshop and end customer demand is coming back strongly”

Market Announcement, GUD Holdings Ltd

Health & Fitness

“What we’re hearing back from consumers that the product categories that we’re in are the ones where people will spend their money. With cycling computers [watches] and those kinds of products, we are spending more on air freight as we try to get those into place at retailers. Cycling activities have been very popular with customers”

Cliff Pemble, CEO, Garmin Ltd

Food & Beverage

“We believe premiumisation will remain an important source of top and bottom line growth in both developed and emerging markets. Beer as a category is still in its early stages of premiumisation, even in developed markets, when compared to other alcohol categories” 

Carlos Brito, CEO, Anheuser Busch Inbev NV

“We expect that right now, we’re still seeing at-home consumption obviously elevated. But as we think about planning and giving guidance for the rest of the year, the best that we felt we could do is take a planning stance that says it will decelerate

Steven Cahillane, CEO, The Kellogg Company

Purchase entries follow below for members only.

Mining poised to lead in the post pandemic recovery

The global lockdown and economic halt due to COVID19 has had a positive impact on the environment. Daily emissions of carbon dioxide levels in comparison to 2019 levels dropped by 17% in April this year.

We start August with many countries around the world still in some form of lockdown and this has only further reduced the level of carbon dioxide emissions.

Many innovators and researchers are pursuing a return to a pre-pandemic level of productivity while ensuring the positive affects on the earth’s ozone layer is not reversed as the global population slowly returns to normal.

There is an urgent need to come up with better solutions that cross between conventional energy and renewable energy. Energy and sustainability go hand in hand. The materials needed to develop new technologies still has a long way to go and have not been exploited in full.

It is for this reason, I pick the mining sector as the one that will buck the trend and lead us in the recovery phase of the market.

Renewable energy, batteries and technology are interlinked with mining operations. They cannot exist without the other.

Mines need to adopt green energy to reduce operational costs and this opens the door to creating more employment opportunities.

Renewable energy is not a buzz word anymore. It’s ethical and is gaining strong lobbying support and being adopted around the world. Although a more balanced approach is needed, as people, even with the right intentions, could effectively set us back decades.

Renewable energy, modern batteries and environmental vehicles require a unique mix of metals. These metals are copper, cobalt, iron, nickel, lithium, rare earths and silver.

Many of these materials are mined in Australia. In fact, name a metal and we can probably dig a hole somewhere in WA and SA and find it.

China has spent vast amounts of money on renewable energy and they are trying to reverse the process of climate change and make their economy more durable. They are doing this by adopting and leading the charge in the green energy sector, to have an economy and energy system that will thrive in the future.

What does China need from Australia?

Minerals and metals. For all the political posturing and sabre rattling, a country of China’s size cannot grow without the means to feed its growing economy.

They’re building to restart the economy, by introducing large infrastructure projects and upgrades. Their investment into Green energy needs Australia’s raw material.

There are other countries in the world that could supply China, take Brazil as an example. However, they do not have the ability to provide the quality and quantity on a consistent basis to China.

The advantage for Australia is that China is not the only country to shift their focus to green energy, there are a lot of countries around the globe that will need the minerals and metals that Australia exports.

A lot of countries around the globe are kick starting their economy by spending on large infrastructure projects to boost flagging unemployment rates.

With all of the above considered, the mining sector ticks the boxes to buck the trend and lead the recovery in the post pandemic world.

Members can check our folio for the in-depth analysis on our mining company share holdings.

How much tax do you pay after selling shares on the ASX share market?

One of the most commonly asked questions is how do taxes work with stock market investing in Australia.

It can be hard for people to understand, and the documentation found online is often complex.

We break it down for you in this article.

Investments are taxed by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), as something called a ‘Capital Gain’.

This term is given to any profit you make, when you sell your shares.

Capital gains from selling assets like shares are added on top of any income you make in the financial year. This would typically be your salary from your employer, that is over the minimum tax free threshold.

This total income is also known as your Total Taxable Income (TTI) in that financial year.

Capital Gains

Let’s say I buy a $20 share and sell it for $30, I’ve made a $10 Capital Gain.

There are two things to know about Capital Gains.

  1. If you hold a share for longer than 12 months (and 1 day) only 50% of your profit is added to your TTI. Meaning in the above example you would only add half of $10, which is $5 to your TTI.
  2. When you make a Capital Gain it can be offset by any Capital Losses you’ve made in your lifetime. So if you gain $30 this financial year but lost $10 in the last financial year, you only pay $20 in Capital Gains and immediately use up your $10 offset.

Also note that brokerage fees are included in your purchases, which means that if I want to buy a $100 share but the brokerage fee is $2 my entry price is $102.

Like wise if I sold the share for $150, I would actually only make $148.

It’s quite useful to use a spreadsheets to track your purchases and sales, and most brokers allow you to export a list of all your transactions as a spreadsheet for the financial year.

Dividends are added to TTI

Lastly, if you’re considering investing in companies that offer dividends, your dividends are added to your Total Taxable Income the same financial year that they’re paid, rather than when you decide to sell the shares.

Let’s use a few examples.

Example 1, person earning $80k, selling shares for a profit of $10k

Let’s say you earn $80,000 per year as a salary from your job.

And you’ve owned some shares for over a year and have now sold them this financial year to make a profit (the difference between price sold on market and initial cost of purchase after removing the brokerage).

Assume the shares were purchased at $5,000 and sold at $10,020. $10 brokerage each for the buy and sell transactions.

This gives you: $10,020 – ($5,000 + $10 + $10) = $5,000 as your profit.

As you owned the shares for over over a year, your capital gains is only 50% of your profit, which is half of $5,000 = $2,500.

Add this to your yearly taxable income of $80,000, that gives you a TTI of $82,500.

Plug this into ATOs Simple Tax Calculator and it applies the different tax scales for 2019-2020 as follows:

Taxable IncomeTax On This Income
0 to $18,200Nil
$18,201 to $37,00019c for each $1 over $18,200
$37,001 to $90,000$3,572 plus 32.5c for each $1 over $37,000
$90,001 to $180,000$20,797 plus 37c for each $1 over $90,000
$180,001 and over$54,097 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000

Based on the table above, for $82,500 we apply the tax from row 3.

$3,572 + ($82,500 -$37,000) x 0.325

= $18,359 total tax on a TTI including capital gains of $85,0000

Without the capital gains of $2,500 from selling the shares, your tax would have been $17,500 on $80,000 TTI.

So the portion of tax paid on $5,000 of profit from sale of shares ends up being $859, meaning you keep $4,141, your net return on investment.

Example 2: Person working part-time earning $18k, selling shares for $5k

Another example: Let’s say you are currently working part time and earn $18,000 per year.

You don’t pay any tax on this as it is under the tax free threshold. Now imagine you sell your shares which cost you $5,000 (after owning them for over a year) for $10,020. This is a profit of $5,000.

Apply the 50% discount on profit and that is your capital gains, half of $5,000 = $2,500.

You only pay tax on the amount over the tax free threshold. From row 2 in the tax scale table above:

Your TTI is $18,000 + $2,500 = $20,500.

($20,500 – $18,201) x 0.19

= $437 total tax on a TTI of $20,500

Your return on investment from the sale of your shares of $5,000 – $437 = $4,563.

Paying huge taxes on shares is a good problem to have

For you to end up with a massive tax bill you would have to have a huge Capital Gain.

In general worrying about your potential profit from shares being eaten away by a large tax bill isn’t practical.

If you do get a massive tax bill you should be fist pumping with the success, because it will means you made a profit much larger than the tax bill itself. The income scale at which it starts to even out is after a TTI of over 500k.

If you have any questions specific to your circumstances, your accountant will be able to explain things and how they might apply to you, all you have to do is ask.

Selling shares if they’re owned for less than 12 months is out of the scope of this article as we almost never do it, as long term value investors.

The main difference is that a 50% discount is not applied to any profits, but there are other factors that can change this, i.e. if one applied to be registered as a person in the business of share trading.

July Folio Update – Week 4 and 5

After a slow Monday (20th July), the market burst upwards hitting a high of 6,150 points. This was off the back of a similar run in the US market.

We’ve moved 1 company from our watchlist into the folio. Purchase entry detailed below.

We bought a parcel in 1 other pharmaceutical company in the last week of July (27th July, Monday). Also updated in Purchase entries below for members.

Also worth checking out our member only article that answers the question: Will there be another share market crash in 2020?

CEO Insights

Employment & Workplace

“By the start of the second quarter, we saw the biggest workforce shift and reallocation of skills since World War 2, with skills needs shifting from aviation and hospitality to driving and information security at an unprecedented scale”

Jonas Prising, CEO, ManpowerGroup Inc [world’s second largest employment firm]

“LinkedIn continues to be impacted as fewer companies, including ours, need to hire at the same volume they did previously”

Ryan Roslansky, CEO, LinkedIn

“More companies will adopt more permanent remote work coming out of this crisis, which will have a positive environmental impact as congestion eases in cities and hopefully, improve quality of life for more people, and uptake in the use of technology by more people than ever before will catalyze change in many industries”

Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock Inc

“I haven’t heard a great alternative that allows companies to build careers, build leaders, build culture, build camaraderie entirely remotely. But who knows, it may happen. I mean there’s all kinds of innovation happening so it’s possible, but our bias is that people will congregate in person in offices, again, in a meaningful way”

Joey Levin, CEO, InterActiveCorp [global media conglomerate]

Banking, Finance & Lending

“Do you keep using public finances to support companies or do you let creative destruction happen? This is going to be a real challenge particularly in the SME space around the world, I suspect this will be a big, big challenge next year. This means that you’ll start seeing a lot more default, which in turn means that you’ll start seeing the problems spill over to the financial sector”

Piyush Gupta, CEO, DBS Bank Ltd [multinational banking group]

Telecommunication

“If there was ever a moment in time for a resetting of the vision for the next 10 years for telecommunications, as we are on the sort of eve, if you like, of the rollout of the NBN, we’re in the dawn of the 5G era, we need a road map for the future”

Andy Penn, CEO, Telstra Corporation Ltd

Energy & Resources

“As economic growth returns, we expect the key producing regions to maintain productive spare capacity so they can quickly meet demand. Offshore, longer cycle barrels and new exploration activity will likely be the farthest out in terms of incremental contribution to the supply stack”

Jeff Miller, CEO, Halliburton Company [world’s second largest oilfield services company]

“In order to achieve a sustainable energy future, we have to have sustainable energy generation, which I think is going to be primarily solar and followed by wind, and those are intermittent. So, you need to have a lot of batteries to store the solar energy because the wind doesn’t always blow, and the sun doesn’t always shine. So, there’s three elements of the sustainable energy future: wind and solar sustainable energy generation; battery storage; and electric transport”

Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Inc

Retail

“Consumers [will now] pay more attention to health and hygiene, meaning that there is an increasing need for products that can boost personal resilience and physical well-being. Hence, we see a clear demand for vacuum cleaners and for air and water purifiers, but also for dishwashers and washing machines”

Jonas Samuelson, CEO, AB Electrolux

Automotive

“Obviously over the medium to long term, the prospects of coming back to a positive trend line with the megatrends of increased population mobilisation, e-commerce, etc., they are still there”

Martin Lundstedt, CEO, AB Volvo

Aviation

“I can’t see any changes in the marketplace in terms of that countries will avoid continuing with protecting their societies and protecting their countries. And the geopolitical situation is not going really in the right direction. It’s actually becoming a bit worse during the COVID-19. So, I see still our prospects being extremely valid [for selling non-civilian aircraft components] going forward”

Micael Johansson, CEO, Saab AB

Media & Advertising

“Advertising demand in Q3 has historically been bolstered by factors that appear unlikely to materialise in the same way they have in prior years, including the back-to-school season, film release schedules, and the operations of various sports leagues”

Derek Anderson, CFO, Snap Inc

Technology

“The trend we see in the market is clear. Clients want to modernise apps, move more workloads to the cloud and automate IT tasks. They want to infuse AI [artificial intelligence] into their workflows and secure their IT infrastructure to fend off growing cybersecurity threats. As a result, we are seeing an increased opportunity of large transformational projects”

Arvind Krishna, CEO, IBM Corp

“Acute skills shortages in tech, cyber security, software development, and data analysts for example continue unabated, reinforcing that the need for skills revolution is here in force”

Jonas Prising, CEO, ManpowerGroup Inc [world’s second largest employment firm]

COVID update

Week beginning 27th July

Another all time high of 530+ cases in Australia with no surprises as to Victoria being the worst affected.

Week ending 17th July

An Oxford University team has released promising results showing it’s vaccine candidate triggers an immune response with minimal side effects. They’re partnered with a British-Swedish distribution partner AstraZeneca who has production facilities in Sydney. It’s not clear yet if they have he right to manufacture and produce locally.

Australia would have to negotiate with global health organisations on sourcing supply.

Victoria cases were up and down before recording a new high today with the latest update at 484 new cases. Recovery looks weeks away.

The rest of Australia continues to do well.

Will there be another share market crash in 2020?

There is a growing apathy in the share market. The ASX 200 (Average weighted index of the top 200 Australian companies listed on the ASX), is struggling to make any meaningful breakthrough the 6000 points psychological barrier.

Crash or correction? What is the difference?

Technically the definition is a downward movement of 10% or under is considered a correction and anything larger and leading to a prolonged period of economic hardship is considered a crash.

For us, there isn’t a big difference. It could be argued we’re still in the process of recovering from a crash. Some sectors have recovered more than others.

Members can read on to see what we think is likely to happen.


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I am convinced that we are looking at another correction taking place within before the year ends.

Looking at some of the companies currently trading at insane premiums, it makes us wonder how long this run can be sustained. We’re optimistic pessimists when it comes to the share market and understand the role of fear and greed in this context. The more understated, but impactful emotion though, is hope. A base built on hope is very shaky, which is the main underlying sentiment driving the influx of retail investors (a non-professional individual investor) into the ASX.

We’re passionate about education and try to explain to readers and members why a correction is not a bad thing and the factors that would lead to the correction. We also educate people on identifying the tell-tale signs so they can become astute investors.

Crash or corrections are buying opportunities

This is because an investor is always on the lookout for buying shares in companies that are trading at a discount, in comparison to their fair value.

What this does is create a scenario over the next few months, where we approach the end of a mini recovery (aka bull run). Corrections like the word implies is a reality-check to a share market flooded with retail investors due to the “fear of missing out” (FOMO). This inevitable results in money being flooded into the market and inflate stock prices to trade at premiums that do not reflect the fundamental reality of a companies prospects and financial balance sheet. Another way to look at this is, more demand = price increase.

We often get asked, if everyone is buying, why would the market correct itself? Shouldn’t it keep increasing?

The role large investors play in corrections

This is where large corporations and institutional funds come into play. Think banks, super funds and other large financial organisations with money to invest.

Let’s take a popular company that gets invested in by retail and large investors, BHP. Over 60% of the company is owned by major entities like HSBC, JP Morgan, Citicorp, BNP Paribas etc.

What happens when they want to realise profits and think prices for BHP are inflated? They sell BHP shares. For large investors, they will be substantial amounts of shares.

What happens when these shares get sold in large volumes? More supply = price drops.

Now think about what retail investors, like you or me would instinctively do? What would the everyday Mum and Dad investors do when they see large amounts of shares being sold? They might panic and think, the price is dropping, maybe something is wrong and also join in the selling. This triggers a price to decline over a period of weeks.

Now multiply it with the strategy of large institutions, who are active investors, they’re looking to sell high (and keep selling even if the price drops a little). What they’re looking to do next is sometimes not obvious until it’s too late. They are waiting to buy back the same shares at even lower prices that inevitable some retail investors will end up selling.

A sobering reality is that approximately 30% of the global share market is owned by large funds and institutional investors. 50% by government, pensions and corporations. That makes up 80%. The remaining 20% is us, retail investors.

The other kicker is that the large institutions use other people’s money and by deciding to sell shares at volumes, the market experiences enough of a downward pressure which leads to corrections. Retail investors often follow like a herd.

These same institutions then picking up the stocks at the bottom after a few weeks or months. On average a correction lasts two months.

So how can we as retail investors, make money?

When the odds are stacked against you, you keep it simple.

You play the long game.

Watch, understand the market and the companies. Look for buying opportunities or invest regularly in the same companies, so your average price ends up being discounted.

Finally, we’re not in the game of making grand, fluffy predictions at Tabarruk. We do make educated estimates of the probability of certain movements in the market. We look at all the facts, analyse macro-economic indicators and have a plan to act on, regardless of the market moving up or down. 

July Folio Update – Week 3

A slow, flattish week overall. The market is treating the 6000 mark like a magnet.

We’ve taken the opportunity to buy more shares in companies we already have positions in to bring our average purchase price down. We talk more about this strategy in our member only article: The secret to buying at the bottom.

We plan to continue doing this alongside new purchases, whenever we see prices falling and if none of the major fundamentals change in these companies.

CEO quotes

Healthcare

“With respect to the health care industry, we are encouraged to see many procedures starting to return versus what we saw in the back half of the first quarter across the globe”

Joseph Wolk, CFO, Johnson & Johnson Inc

“As vaccines become available, we would anticipate continued surveillance testing to monitor and assess for both natural and vaccine-related immune response, which would be followed by a steady state of ongoing monitoring and tracking of vaccine protection. Looking across the spectrum, it’s clear that the need for testing is large and it isn’t going away”

Robert Ford, CEO, Abbott Laboratories Inc

Retail

“I think e-commerce, if you see the growth of e-commerce, it is going to be quite strategic. I think whoever wins in e-commerce now and is able to capture those families that are trying this e-grocery service for the first time I think is going to win those families in the future”

Ramon Laguarta, CEO, PepsiCo Inc

“This [pandemic] will lead to a permanent shift away from regular retail to online retail to some extent”

Anthony Pratt, Executive Chairman, Visy Industries

Workplace

“There is a lot of discussions [with clients] on cost efficiency and automation, we [also] have discussions on cyber security and workplace transformation”

Salil Parekh, CEO, Infosys Ltd [top tier multinational consulting firm]

Travel & Leisure

“We have substantial new bookings, and we even have new to cruise bookings, which given the current state of the environment in the world is really a good testament to how strong a vacation experience and value cruising really is”

Arnold Donald, CEO, Carnival Corp

Entertainment

“TikTok’s growth is astounding, showing the fluidity of internet entertainment. Instead of worrying about all these competitors, we continue to stick to our strategy of trying to improve our service and content every quarter faster than our peers. Our continued strong growth is a testament to this approach and the size of the entertainment market. Growth [in streaming demand] is slowing as consumers get through the initial shock of Covid and social restrictions”

Reed Hastings, CEO, Netflix Inc

Food & Beverage

“Are consumers meaningfully changing some of their needs? I would say, there are few spaces where we’re trying to move quickly, immunity [beverages] being one, and we’re seeing that consumers are looking for immunity more. Our juice business is booming”

Ramon Laguarta, CEO, PepsiCo Inc

Mining

Aluminium demand is starting to show some signs of recovery based on monthly data for some key end use sectors, particularly in China. For example, Chinese passenger vehicle production was up more than 11% in both May and June when compared with the same months last year. The most recent data on construction activities in China are also better than the monthly levels in May of 2019” 

Roy Harvey, CEO, Alcoa Corporation [global aluminium producer]

Energy

“We are positioning to take advantage of a forecast global LNG supply shortfall later this decade”

Peter Coleman, CEO, Woodside Ltd

Groceries

“I’d say the basket size is significantly higher for home delivery [vs. in-store]. And so far we’re seeing it being very complimentary to our typical patterns [of trading]”

Brian Hannasch, CEO, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. [world’s second largest convenience store chain]

Transport & Logistics

“Every day may kind of bounce up and down a couple of percentage points, but the overall trend [in travel volumes] is an unmistakably positive trend. When I translate that to globally, that trend is absolutely positive on a week-on-week basis”

Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO, Uber Inc

Payments and Lending

“The difficulty for everyone is there is some uncertainty, we hear that a lot from customers. That’s probably been the dominant theme in the repayment check-ins… they still want the flexibility because they are not quite sure what is around the corner”

Matt Comyn, CEO, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd

US Economy

“This is not a normal recession… the consumers’ incomes are up, savings are up, and home prices up. The recessionary part will come later”

Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan Chase & Co

Read on for a local update followed by purchase entries for this week.

COVID update

Melbourne Metro continues it’s 6 week lockdown. Today has been the all time highest in terms of new cases recorded in Victoria, over 400. There are talks of a stage 4 lockdown.

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